Olga Aryasova (Inst. of Geophysics, Nat. Acad. of Sciences of Ukraine / Friedrich–Schiller–Univ. Jena)
Samuel Sindayigaya (Kigali)
We study Birth-Death-Immigration-Emigration (BDIE) Processes with genocide incidence via their probability generating functions. The influence of genocide incidence, as a partial catastrophe, consists in reducing the population size to a non-zero state. We compute explicitly the first moments of such a random population size as function of the genocide parameters. An application to the population of Rwanda will be discussed.