A stochastic model for population evolution with genocide incidence

31.05.2018, 10:15-11:45  –  Campus 2 Haus 27 Raum 0.29/30
Forschungsseminar Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie

Samuel Sindayigaya (Kigali)

Abstrasct:

We study Birth-Death-Immigration-Emigration (BDIE) Processes with genocide incidence via their probability generating functions. The influence of genocide incidence, as a partial catastrophe, consists in reducing the population size to a non-zero state. We compute explicitly the first moments of such a random population size as function of the genocide parameters. An application to the population of Rwanda will be discussed.