Prof. Dr. Gert Zöller

• Seit 2018: Außerplanmäßiger Professor für Angewandte Mathematik an der Universität Potsdam
• 2008-2018: Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter (permanent) und Dozent im Institut für Mathematik an der Universität Potsdam
• 2006: Lehrbefugnis ("Privatdozent"), Universität Potsdam
• 2006: Habilitation (Dr. rer. nat. habil.), Universität Potsdam
• 2005: Gastaufenthalte an der University of Southern California, Los Angeles (USC) und der University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)
• 1999-2008: wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter an der Universität Potsdam (Institut für Physik/Institut für Mathematik/Sonderforschungsbereich 555)
• 1999: Promotion (Dr. rer. nat.), Universität Potsdam
• 1995: Diplom (Dipl. Phys.), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn

• seit 2017: Principal Investigator im DFG Sonderforschungsbereich 1294 (Data Assimilation - The seamless integration of data and models)
• 2015-2024: Principal Investigator in der DFG Graduiertenschule NatRiskChange (Natural hazards and risks in a changing world)
• seit 2009: Vertrauensdozent der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
• 2015: Organisator des "9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology" in Potsdam
• 2010-2014: Scientific Officer für "Earthquake Hazards" in der Division "Natural Hazards" der European Geosciences Union
• 2008-2013: Principal Inverstiagtor im DFG-Projekt "Virtual Lower Rhine Embayement: Physics-based numerical simulation of earthquake ruptures and seismic cycles"
• 2006-2014: Associate Editor von Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
• 2006: Guest Editor von Tectonophysics
• Gutachter für zahlreiche Fachjournale, u.a. Science, Geophys. Res. Lett., J. Geophys.  Res., Geophys. J. Int., Seismol. Res. Lett., Bull. Seimol. Soc. Am. 

2025

• Maleki Asayesh, B., Hainzl, S. and Zöller, G.
  Improved Aftershock Forecasts Using Mainshock Information in the Framework of the ETAS Model, Journal of Geophysical Research 130 (2): e2024JB030287, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030287 (2025).
• Hainzl, S., Dahm, T., and Zöller, G.
  Modelling induced seismicity in Groningen based on subcritical stressed faults, Geophysical Journal International, 241(2): 840-851, doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaf064 (2025).

2024

• Zöller, G.
  Recurrence times of large earthquakes: assimilating the effect of seismic coupling into a renewal model, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 114 (3): 1754–1761, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230257
   (2024).
• Molkenthin, C. Zöller, G., Hainzl, S. and Holschneider, M.
  Bayesian earthquake forecasting using Gaussian process modeling: GP-ETAS applications, Seismological Research Letters, Focus section on Statistical Seismology, 95(6), 3532-3544,  https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240170 (2024).

2023

• Maleki Asayesh, B., Hainzl, S. and Zöller, G.
  Depth‐Dependent Aftershock Trigger Potential Revealed by 3D‐ETAS Modeling. - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 128(6), e2023JB026377. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JB026377 (2023).
• Sharma, S., Hainzl, S. and Zöller, G.
  Seismicity parameters dependence on main shock-induced co-seismic stress.  Geophysical Journal International,235(1), 509-517, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad201 (2023).
• Zöller, G. and Hainzl, S.,
  Seismicity scenarios for the remaining operating period of the gas field in Groningen, Netherlands,
  Seismological Research Letters 94(2A), 805-812, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220308 (2023).

2022

• Zöller, G.
  A note on the estimation of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude based on extreme value theory for the Groningen gas field,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 112(4), 1825-1831,https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210307 (2022).
• Molkenthin, C., Donner, C., Reich, S., Zöller, G., Hainzl, S., Holschneider, M. and Opper,
  GP-ETAS: Semiparametric Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model,
  Statistics and Computing 32:29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10085-3 (2022).

2021

• Schoppa, L., Kreibich H., Sieg, T., Vogel, K., and  Zöller, G.
  Developing multivariable probabilistic flood loss models for companies,
  FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management,https://doi.org/10.3311/FloodRisk2020.11.12 (2021).

2020

• Zöller, G., Hainzl, S., Tilmann, F., Woith, H., and  Dahm, T.
  Comment on "Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring'' by Wikelski, Mueller, Scocco, Catorci, Desinov, Belyaev, Keim, Pohlmeier, Fechteler, and Mai,
  Ethology,https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13105 (2020).
• Sharma, S., Hainzl, S., Zöller, G., and  Holschneider M.
  Is Coulomb stress the best choice for aftershock forecasting?,
  Journal of Geophysical Research,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB019553 (2020).
• Schoppa, L., Sieg, T., Vogel, K., Zöller, G., and  Kreibich, H.
  Probabilistic Flood Loss Models for Companies,
  Water Resources Research,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027649 (2020).
• Richter, G., Hainzl, S., Dahm, T., and Zöller, G.
  Stress-based, statistical modeling of the induced seismicity at the Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands,
  Environmental Earth Sciences, 79, 252, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-08941-4  (2020).

• Laudan, J., Zöller, G., and Thieken, A. H.
  Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour,
  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20, 999-1023, doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020 (2020).

2019

• Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zöller, G. and Ogata, Y.
  Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake,
  Nature Communications, 10: 4051, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4  (2019).
• Salamat, M., Zöller, G. and Amini, M.
  Prediction of the maximum expected earthquake magnitude in Iran from a catalog with varying magnitude of completeness and uncertain magnitudes,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics 176 (8), 3425–3438, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02141-3  (2019).

2018

• M. Salamat, G. Zöller, M. Zare, and M. Amini
  The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings,
  Journal of Seismology, 22, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9780-7, (2018).

• B. Fiedler, S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and M. Holschneider
  Detection of Gutenberg–Richter b-value changes in earthquake time series,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108 (5A), 2778-2787, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180091 (2018).

• G. Zöller
  A statistical model for earthquake recurrence based on the assimilation of paleo-, historic, and instrumental seismicity,
  Journal of Geophysical Research, 123, 4906-4921, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015099 (2018).

• B. Fiedler, G. Zöller, M. Holschneider, and S. Hainzl
  Multiple change-point detection in spatio-temporal seismicity data,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3A), 1147-1159, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170236 (2018).

2017

• G. Zöller and M. Holschneider
  Reply to "Comment on 'The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands' by Mathias Raschke",
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(2), 1929-1930, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170131 (2017).

• G. Zöller
  Comment to ``Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation of Uncertainty of Earthquake-Occurrence Model'' by Andrzej Kijko, Ansie Smit, and Markvard A. Sellevoll,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(4), 1975-1978, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160193 (2017).

• M. Salamat, M. Zare, G. Zöller, and M. Holschneider
  Calculation of confidence intervals for the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in different seismotectonic zones of Iran,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 174(3), 763-777, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1418-5  (2017).

2016

• G. Zöller and M. Holschneider
  The maximum possible and the maximum expected earthquake magnitude for production-induced earthquakes at the gas field in Groningen, The Netherlands,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 106(6), 2917-2921, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160220  (2016).

• G. Zöller and M. Holschneider
  The earthquake history in a fault zone tells us almost nothing about m_max,
  Seismological Research Letters, 87(1), 132-137, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150176 (2016).

2015

• G. Zöller, S. Ullah, D. Bindi, S. Parolai, and N. Mikhailova
  The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Central Asia: Statistical inference from an earthquake catalog with uncertain magnitudes,
  The Geological Society of London, Special Publication "Seismicity, Fault Rupture and Earthquake Hazards in Slowly Deforming Regions", https://doi.org/10.1144/SP432.3 (2015).

• S. Maghsoudi, S. Cesca, S. Hainzl, T. Dahm, G. Zöller, and D. Kaiser
  Maximum magnitude of completeness in a salt mine,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(3), 1491-1501, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140039  (2015).

• L. Wang, G. Zöller, and S. Hainzl
  Joint determination of slip and stress drop in a Bayesian inversion approach: A case study for the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 172, 375-388,doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0868-x (2015).

2014

• G. Zöller and M. Holschneider
  Induced seismicity: What is the size of the largest expected earthquake?,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(6), 3153-3158, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140195  (2014).

• L. Wang, S. Hainzl, and G. Zöller
  Assessment of stress coupling among the inter-, co- and post- seismic phases related to the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake,
  Geophysical Journal International, 197, 1858-1868, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu102 (2014).

• G. Zöller and Y. Ben-Zion
  Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 171(11), 2955-2965, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1  (2014).

• M. Holschneider, G. Zöller, R. Clements, and D. Schorlemmer
  Can we test for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude?,
  Journal of Geophysical Research, 119(3), 2019-2028, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010319 (2014).

• G. Zöller, M. Holschneider, S. Hainzl, and J. Zhuang
  The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(2), 769-779, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130103 (2014).

2013

• G. Zöller
  Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes: Maybe in 200 years,
  Geophysical Research Letters, 40(15), 3873-3877, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50779 (2013).

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, G. Brietzke, and K.-G. Hintzen
  Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany,
  Geophysical Journal International, 195(1), 684-694, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271  (2013).

• G. Zöller, M. Holschneider, and S. Hainzl
  The maximum earthquake magnitude in a time horizon: Theory and case studies,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2a), 860-875, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120013  (2013).

2012

• L. Wang, S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and M. Holschneider
  Stress- and aftershock- constrained joint inversions for co- and post- seismic slip applied to the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake,
  Journal of Geophysical Research,117(B7), https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009017 (2012).

2011

• M. Holschneider, G. Zöller, and S. Hainzl
  Estimation of the maximum possible magnitude in the framework of the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter model,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(4), 1649-1659, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100289  (2011).

2010

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, M. Holschneider, and G. Brietzke
  Steady-state solutions of rupture propagation in an earthquake simulator governed by rate and state dependent friction,
  The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 191, 105-115, https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2010-01344-6  (2010).

• S. Hainzl, G. Brietzke, and G. Zöller
  Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress-triggering,
  Journal of Geophysical Research, 115(B11), B 11311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007473(2010).

• S. Shin, G. Zöller, M. Holschneider, and S. Reich
  A multigrid solver for modeling complex interseismic stress fields,
  Computers & Geosciences, 37(8), 1075-1082, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2010.11.011(2010).

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, and M. Holschneider
  Recurrence of large earthquakes: Bayesian inference from catalogs in the presence of magnitude uncertainties,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6-7), 845-853, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0078-0  (2010).

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and R. Wang
  Impact of the receiver fault distribution on aftershock activity,
  Journal of Geophysical Research, 115,   B 05315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JB006224 (2010).

2009

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, Y. Ben-Zion, and M. Holschneider - Review article
  Critical states of seismicity: From models to practical seismic hazard estimates,
  Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science  (Section: Complexity in earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, and forecasting and early warning of their hazards; ed. by W.H.K. Lee), Springer, ISBN: 978-0-387-75888-6, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_466  (2009).

2008

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, and M. Holschneider
  Recurrent large earthquakes in a fault region: What can be inferred from small and intermediate events?
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98(6), 2641-2651, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080146  (2008).

2007

• G. Zöller and S. Hainzl
  Recurrence time distributions of large earthquakes in a stochastic model for coupled fault systems: the role of fault interaction,
  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 97(5), 1679-1697, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060262  (2007).

• G. Zöller, Y. Ben-Zion, M. Holschneider, and S. Hainzl
  Estimating recurrence times and seismic hazard of large earthquakes on an individual fault,
  Geophysical Journal International, 170, 1300-1310, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03480.x (2007).

2006

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and I. Main
  Introduction to special issue: Dynamics of seismicity patterns and earthquake triggering,
  Tectonophysics, 424, 135-138,  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.034 (2006).

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, Y. Ben-Zion, and M. Holschneider
  Earthquake activity related to seismic cycles in a model for a heterogeneous strike-slip fault,
  Tectonophysics, 423, 137-145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.007 (2006).

• G. Zöller
  Critical states of seismicity - modeling and data analysis, Habilitation thesis, University of Potsdam (2006).
  PDF (18.8 MB)

2005

• G. Zöller, M. Holschneider, and Y. Ben-Zion
  The role of heterogeneities as a tuning parameter of earthquake dynamics,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162, 1027-1049, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-004-2660-9 (2005).

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, M. Holschneider, and Y. Ben-Zion
  Aftershocks resulting from creeping sections in a heterogeneous fault,
  Geophysical Reserach Letters, 32, L03308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021871 (2005).
  Selected as AGU Journal Highlight
    

2004

• G. Zöller, M. Holschneider, and Y. Ben-Zion
  Quasi-static and quasi-dynamic modeling of earthquake failure at intermediate scales,
  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 161, 2103-2118, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-004-2551-0  (2004).

2003

• C. Narteau, P. Shebalin, S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and M. Holschneider
  Emergence of a band-limited power law in the aftershock decay rate of a slider-block model,
  Geophysical Research Letters, 30, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017110 (2003).

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and F. Scherbaum
  Earthquake clusters resulting from delayed rupture propagation in finite fault segments,
  Journal of Geophysical Research 108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000610 (2003).

2002

• I. Zaliapin, Z. Liu, G. Zöller, V. Keilis-Borok, and D. Turcotte
  On increase of earthquake correlation length prior to large earthquakes in California,
  Computational Seismology 33, 141-161, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/CS008p0001 (2002).

• G. Zöller and S. Hainzl
  A systematic spatiotemporal test of the critical point hypothesis for large earthquakes,
  Geophysical Research Letters 29, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014856 (2002).

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, and J. Zschau
  A systematic test on precursory seismic quiescence in Armenia,
  Natural Hazards 26, 245-263, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015685006180  (2002).

2001

• G. Zöller and S. Hainzl
  Detecting premonitory seismicity patterns based on critical point dynamics,
  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 1, 93-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-1-93-2001  (2001).

• S. Hainzl and G. Zöller
  The role of disorder and stress concentration in nonconservative fault systems,
  Physica A 294, 67-84, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00104-2  (2001).

• G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, and J. Kurths
  Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes,
  Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 2167-2176, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB900379 (2001).

2000

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and J. Kurths
  Self-organization of spatio-temporal earthquake clusters,
  Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 7, 21-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-7-21-2000  (2000).

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, J. Kurths, and J. Zschau
  Seismic quiescence as an indicator for large earthquakes in a system of self-organized criticality,
  Geophysical Research Letters 27, 597-600, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL011000 (2000).

1999

• G. Zöller
  Analyse raumzeitlicher Muster in Erdbebendaten,
  PhD thesis (in German), University of Potsdam (1999).
  PDF (8.2 MB)

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and J. Kurths
  Similar power laws for fore- and aftershock sequences in a spring-block model for earthquakes,
  Journal of Geophysical Research 104, 7243-7253, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JB900122 (1999).

• S. Hainzl, G. Zöller, and J. Kurths
  Self-organized criticality model for earthquakes: quiescence, foreshocks, and aftershocks,
  International  Journal of Bifurcations and Chaos 9, 2249-2255, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127499001711 (1999).

• Gert Zöller: Mitbestimmung oder Dozentenbashing? Über Online-Evaluierungen der Lehre, Forschung & Lehre 4/2015 (2015) Link: www.wissenschaftsmanagement-online.de/system/files/downloads-wimoarticle/1504_WIMO_Mitbestimmung%20oder%20Dozenten-Bashing_Z%C3%B6ller.pdf

• Seismological Society of America (SSA)
• American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• European Geosciences Union (EGU)
• Deutscher Hochschulverband (DHV)

• Statistische Seismologie
• Statistische und physikalische Modelle für Erdbeben und andere Naturkatastrophen
• Seismische Gefährdung
• Extremwertstatistik

Campus Golm: Haus 9, Zi. 1.04 (Assistenz: Frau Franz, Zi. 1.09)

Campus Griebnitzsee: Haus 3.01, Zi. 1.19

Telefon: +49 331 977 1175

Fax: +49 331 977 1500

Email: zoeller(at)uni-potsdam.de

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