Waiting time model for accumulating mutations

10.10.2014, 11:15 Uhr  –  Universität Potsdam, Campus Golm, Haus 25, Raum SR B0.01
Gastvortrag

Hesam Montazeri (ETH Zürich)

• Abstract: 
  HIV drug resistance development is a consequence of viral evolution. This evolutionary process is characterized mainly by the accumulation of resistance mutations, i.e., mutations that confer a selective advantage under the selective pressure of antiviral drugs. Different statistical models including the continuous time conjunctive Bayesian network (CBN) model have been proposed for modeling the accumulation of mutations. The continuous time CBN represents a waiting time process for the accumulation of mutations where the occurrences of mutations are subject to some constraints. Consequently, according to this model, evolution follows only a subset of all possible mutational pathways from the wild type, the genotype carrying no mutation, to the fully resistant genotype, the genotype carrying all resistance mutations. In this talk, I will present the CBN model and some recent improvements of the model in detail and as an application I will demonstrate how this model can help to improve HIV treatment outcome prediction.